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Frequently Asked Questions

Will Newsom win the recall?

On Friday, UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies released a poll predicting that Newsom will defeat the recall by 22 percentage points — a far cry from just a few weeks ago, when the institute found that likely voters were almost evenly split over whether to keep him in office.

Is Newsom’s base of voters waking up?

The Democratic panic of early August has since subsided. A UC Berkeley poll out Friday shows the recall failing by 22 percentage points. The latest from SurveyUSA gave Newsom a solid 13-point lead. Now a new conventional wisdom has taken hold: The recall faces long odds because Newsom’s Democratic base of voters has woken up.

How many Californians are undecided about who should replace Newsom?

Like the Emerson/Nexstar poll, the Berkeley IGS poll found that a large swath of Californians are not sure what to do on the recall ballot's second question of who should replace Newsom. Emerson/Nexstar found 53% of Californians were undecided on the bottom of the ballot, and Berkeley IGS found 40% undecided.

Did 51% of voters really want to fire Newsom?

A few days later came an even more alarming set of figures from SurveyUSA: A majority of likely voters, 51%, wanted to fire Newsom, compared to a mere 40% who did not. It came at a pivotal moment in the chaotic recall, just hours before the first televised debate.

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