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Frequently Asked Questions

How are public polls listed on the FiveThirtyEight polls page?

Polls conducted after June 28, 2018, the date this page was published, are listed by the date that FiveThirtyEight collected them; polls conducted before then are listed under the last date that the poll was in the field. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown.

How many times does FiveThirtyEight simulate the election?

How To Vote In The 2020 Election By Nathaniel Rakich, Maya Sweedler and Julia Wolfe When To Expect The Results In Every State By Nathaniel Rakich and Elena Mejía To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast! We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often.

How often does the FiveThirtyEight 2020 election map update?

Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast . Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day.

How are state polling averages adjusted for national trends?

State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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